Polisario Front Losing Ground in Western Sahara Independence Bid, South African Think Tank Reports

A prominent South African think tank report concludes that the Polisario Front is losing ground in its long-running bid for Western Sahara independence. The report cites Morocco's growing diplomatic success in garnering support for its 2007 autonomy proposal as a key factor in this shift. The report highlights developments like U.S. recognition of Moroccan sovereignty, declining Polisario support in the African Union, and the opening of consulates in Western Saharan cities as signs of Morocco's strengthening position.

HASSAN BENYOUB HASSAN BENYOUB
0
Polisario Front Losing Ground in Western Sahara Independence Bid, South African Think Tank Reports
A refugee camp in the middle of the desert where poverty and hunger prevail, especially among children.

A South African think tank report finds the Polisario Front is losing its fight for Western Sahara independence, as Morocco's autonomy proposal gains increasing international support. The report analyzes key geopolitical shifts, including U.S. and French backing for Morocco's position.

Moroccan Diplomatic Success and Shifting Tides

In a recent study, a prominent South African think tank has concluded that the Polisario Front is increasingly losing its bid for Western Sahara independence. The report, published by the Institute for Security Studies (ISS) based in Pretoria, highlights the growing support for Morocco's 2007 autonomy proposal as a key factor in this shift. "The Polisario Front has been engaged in a struggle for independence for decades, but today, it seems their dream is evaporating in the face of Rabat's success in attracting numerous supporters for the autonomy proposal," the ISS states.

Key Developments Contributing to the Shift:

  • Morocco's diplomatic success in garnering support for its autonomy plan: This includes securing recognition of Moroccan sovereignty over Western Sahara from the United States in 2020 and support for Morocco's position from France in 2024.
  • Declining support for Polisario within the African Union: Currently, only about 22 countries within the African Union continue to support the Polisario Front.
  • Increasing number of consulates opening in Western Sahara cities: This growing diplomatic presence further reinforces Morocco's de facto control over the region.

The think tank emphasizes that Morocco has successfully convinced major powers to support its autonomy proposal within the framework of Moroccan sovereignty. The U.S. recognition in 2020 and French support in 2024 are considered significant turning points in the conflict.

Polisario's Declining Support and Moroccan Strategy

The Polisario Front is experiencing a notable decline in international backing. Some nations have even frozen their recognition of the Polisario as the representative of the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR).

Morocco's successful diplomatic efforts have focused on:

  • Removing the Western Sahara issue from the African Union's purview
  • Limiting discussions to United Nations forums
  • Attracting new supporters
  • Isolating the Polisario Front

This strategic approach is paving the way for Morocco to establish facts on the ground and potentially resolve the conflict in its favor.

Table: Support for Western Sahara Positions within the African Union

Position Number of Countries
Pro-Polisario 22
Pro-Morocco Increasing
Neutral/Undecided Remaining

Impact on Regional Dynamics and Future Prospects

The shift in support towards Morocco's autonomy plan is likely to have significant implications for regional politics and stability in North Africa. This shift may lead to:

  • Increased economic integration in the region
  • Potential resolution of a long-standing conflict
  • Realignment of diplomatic relations among African nations
  • Challenges for Algeria, Polisario's main backer

As Morocco continues to gain diplomatic ground, the prospects for Polisario's independence aspirations appear to be diminishing. The international community may increasingly view Morocco's autonomy proposal as a viable solution to the decades-long dispute.

Challenges Ahead and Conclusion

Despite the apparent shift in favor of Morocco's position, several challenges remain:

  • Ensuring the rights and representation of the Sahrawi people
  • Addressing humanitarian concerns in the region
  • Navigating complex international interests
  • Implementing a potential autonomy plan

The South African think tank's report suggests a significant shift in the Western Sahara conflict dynamics. Morocco's diplomatic efforts, coupled with increasing international support for its autonomy proposal, are reshaping the landscape of this long-standing dispute. As the Polisario Front faces growing isolation, the international community may need to reassess its approach to resolving the Western Sahara question.

The coming years will likely be crucial in determining the final status of Western Sahara, with Morocco's autonomy plan gaining traction as a potential solution to one of Africa's most protracted conflicts.

Tags: