The PLF 2025 aims for an accelerate of the energy transition.

The 2025 Finance Bill firmly emphasizes green energy transition, with a set of fiscal measures aimed at redirecting Morocco's energy system towards more sustainable sources. Among the major initiatives, there is an increase in the domestic consumption tax on fossil products such as coal, heavy oil, and other petrochemicals used in electricity production. These adjustments not only aim to increase tax revenues but also to strengthen the competitiveness of renewable energies.

The fiscal measures included in the 2025 Project of the Finance Law (PLF) demonstrate Morocco's commitment to positioning itself as a leader in energy transition in Africa. This transition will not be without challenges, as the project envisages significant increases in the internal consumption tax (TIC) on coal, heavy fuel oil, bitumen, and lubricating oils. Specifically, the tax on coal will rise from 6.48 to 12.48 DH/100 kg, while the tax on heavy fuel oil will increase from 18.24 to 24.24 DH/100 kg. Conversely, other petroleum products, such as bitumen and lubricating oils, will also see their tax increased (respectively from 45 to 51 DH/100 kg and from 228 to 234 DH/100 kg).

However, these tax increases aim to make these energies more expensive, thereby promoting the adoption of more environmentally friendly energy solutions, such as solar, wind, and hydroelectric power. The goal is to make renewable energies more competitive and to encourage economic actors (electricity producers, industries, and households) to invest more in sustainable solutions.

By making the use of these energies more expensive, Morocco is seeking to accelerate the shift to a more environmentally friendly energy model while upholding its climate commitments and supporting the transition to a greener energy mix.

By 2030, the goal is to increase the share of renewable energies in Morocco's energy mix to 52%. This transition is part of a desire to reduce the country's dependence on imported fossil fuels and thus decrease the risks associated with energy security and the trade balance. Indeed, a broader adoption of renewable energies would strengthen Morocco's energy resilience against the fluctuations of global oil and gas prices.

In the long term, this strategy aims to make fossil fuels less competitive. In this regard, the state hopes to promote faster adoption of green technologies and reduce CO2 emissions from the country. One of the immediate consequences of these fiscal measures will be an increase in the state's tax revenues, which could receive several billion dirhams due to the increase in the TIC rates. For instance, an increase in the TIC on coal could generate additional revenue of 700 million dirhams, according to the imported volumes in 2023.

The price volatility remains a risk.

According to the Exchange Office, the energy bill in Morocco decreased by 5.5% by the end of October 2024 compared to the previous year, primarily due to a decrease in global coal and similar solid fuel prices. Thus, coal imports have fallen by 25% in volume, contributing to a significant reduction in energy costs. Conversely, if hydrocarbon prices were to rise, the impact of tax hikes could translate into a substantial increase in energy prices for final consumers. This development could have effects on both electricity prices and industrial costs.

Let's recall that in 2023-2024, oil imports decreased, whereas the volumes of diesel and fuel oil slightly increased due to global price hikes. This indicates that, although Morocco has temporarily benefited from a reduction in its energy costs due to the drop in global prices, fluctuations in oil prices remain a decisive factor for the national economy.