Khalifa Haftar: The Strongman of Libya Shaking North Africa

(Analysis by the Geopolitical Institute Horizons, our experts decipher the complex dynamics of the Maghreb and the Sahel.)

The geopolitical situation in Libya continues to evolve under the influence of Marshal Khalifa Haftar, a central figure in the Libyan conflict. His recent military maneuvers at the country's southwest border raise critical questions about the regional balance and international stakes in North Africa.

Haftar's rise is set against the post-Gaddafi context, marked by chronic political instability. His trajectory, from military training in the 1960s to exile in the United States and then his return in 2011, illustrates the complexity of Libyan political dynamics. The creation of the Libyan National Army in 2014 consolidated his position as an indispensable player in the east of the country.

The geostrategic importance of Libya cannot be underestimated. Its oil resources make it a major economic stake, while its geographical position places it at the heart of Mediterranean security concerns. The fragmentation of the country has created areas conducive to the establishment of extremist groups, raising concerns about regional stability and migration flows to Europe.

Haftar's deployment of forces to the Algerian border can be analyzed through several prisms:

1. Domestic strategy: A show of force aimed at strengthening his position in national political negotiations.
2. Regional projection: An attempt to capitalize on the weakening of Algerian influence in the Sahel.
3. International message: A signal sent to foreign powers involved in the Libyan conflict.

This maneuver is part of a broader geopolitical context, where Libya has become a theater of confrontation between powers. The involvement of Russia through the Wagner Group and the reactions of Western countries illustrate the international dimension of the conflict. Haftar's actions are thus interpreted within the framework of a geostrategic competition with repercussions beyond Libyan borders.

For the European Union, the stability of Libya represents a major security and migration challenge. Recent developments raise concerns about the security of the southern Mediterranean shore and potential consequences on migration flows. The rekindled tensions with Algeria could lead to a reconfiguration of alliances in the Maghreb and Sahel region.

This fluid situation requires analysts and policymakers to consider various scenarios:

• An escalation of the conflict, with risks of regional spillover.
• The maintenance of an unstable status quo, perpetuating the division of the country.
• A negotiation process under international auspices, despite existing obstacles.

The analysis of Khalifa Haftar's actions reveals the interconnection of local, regional, and international issues in North Africa. Libya appears to be a barometer of tensions and power balances in the region. The evolution of the situation will have implications not only for the future of the country but also for the stability of the entire Mediterranean region.

The international community, particularly European countries, is facing a major challenge. The need to stabilize Libya is confronted with the complexity of the situation on the ground. In this context, the role of Khalifa Haftar, whether perceived as a factor of stabilization or division, remains a central element of the geopolitical analysis of the region.

The situation in Libya, catalyzed by Haftar's actions, illustrates the complexity of geopolitical dynamics in North Africa. It underscores the importance of a multidimensional approach that takes into account security, economic, and diplomatic aspects.