Algeria on the Brink of Exclusion from the Arab League?

Adapted from: Institute of Geopolitical Horizons IGH

A highly sensitive and exclusive report, obtained from a high-level diplomatic source close to the Arab League's secretariat, suggests that Algeria is facing a real threat of exclusion from the pan-Arab organization. This development, if confirmed, could have far-reaching consequences for Algeria's diplomatic relations and its position on the regional and international stage.

A Deepening Crisis

The catalyst for this unprecedented initiative is Algeria's organization of a "Rif Day" on November 23, coupled with the financing of a separatist entity, the "Rif National Party." A budget of 10 million euros was allegedly allocated to internationalize this new separatist claim, a provocation that seems to have been the final straw.

International Isolation

The potential exclusion of Algeria comes at a time when the country is facing increasing international isolation. The expected return of Donald Trump to the White House in January, with the likely appointment of Marco Rubio as Secretary of State, threatens to further exacerbate Algeria's diplomatic woes. Rubio, known for his critical stance on the Algerian regime and his support for Moroccan positions, could significantly harden the US stance.

Crisis with France

Algeria's relations with France are also deteriorating on two fronts:

• France's explicit support for Moroccan sovereignty, marking a turning point in the French position on the Sahara issue
• The controversial arrest of Franco-Algerian writer Boualem Sansal on November 16, which sparked a wave of shock in bilateral relations and elicited strong condemnation from the French political class

The Arab Front

The massive support of Gulf countries for Morocco, reaffirmed yesterday at the 45th Gulf Cooperation Council summit in Kuwait, illustrates Algeria's growing isolation in the Arab world. The final declaration of the summit, explicitly supporting "the Moroccanity of the Sahara" and "the territorial integrity of the Kingdom of Morocco," appears to be a scathing rebuke of Algeria's policy.

Discreet but Advanced Discussions

According to our sources, contacts between certain member states have intensified in recent days. Several confidential meetings have reportedly taken place to assess the feasibility of such a measure. "The question is no longer whether Algeria should be sanctioned, but how to proceed legally," confides a diplomat close to the file under cover of anonymity.

Scenarios on the Table

Three options are currently being discussed:

1. Total exclusion, requiring the unanimity of members
2. Temporary suspension, following the Syrian precedent of 2011
3. A formal ultimatum demanding the immediate cessation of all destabilizing activities

The Aftermath of Exclusion

The implications of such a decision would be significant:

• Increased marginalization on the international stage
• Potentially devastating economic repercussions
• A significant weakening of Algeria's position on the Sahara issue
• A major reconfiguration of regional balances

A Precarious Situation

With the Baghdad summit just a few months away, Algeria finds itself in an extremely precarious diplomatic situation. The accumulation of crises – with Arab countries, France, and potentially the United States – outlines the contours of an unprecedented isolation. The Rif provocation could well be the final straw, precipitating a historic decision within the Arab League.

Table: Algeria's Diplomatic Crises

List: Key Players Involved

• Algeria: President Abdelmadjid Tebboune
• Morocco: King Mohammed VI
• France: President Emmanuel Macron
• United States: President Donald Trump, Secretary of State Marco Rubio
• Arab League: Secretary-General Ahmed Aboul Gheit